大股东控制与现金持有价值关系的经验研究

本文以沪深两市2005—2010年391家上市公司为样本,检验了大股东控制对中国上市公司现金持有价值的影响。研究发现,第一大股东持股比例与企业价值间是一种近似U型的非线性关系,第一大股东持股比例的临界点为45%。将第一大股东持股比例与现金持有量的交互项引入模型,回归发现,当第一大股东持股比例小于45%时,交互项的系数显著为负,大股东控制的壕沟效应占主导;当第一大股东持股比例超过45%时,交互项的回归结果不显著。没有证据表明第一大股东性质会对企业价值发挥显著影响。     

基于改进的BP-LM在中国人口老龄化预测中的应用

由于人口老龄化率的预测具有高度非线性特征，这与BP神经网络能够处理非线性问题的特征相符合，但BP神经网络算法易使解陷入局部极小。基于L-M算法的改进BP神经网络可以有效克服这一问题，而且收敛速度快。通过具体的仿真及实践结果验证了改进BP的有效性，并对未来五年的中国老龄化率进行了预测。     

Portfolio effects in conglomerate mergers: the empirical evidence of leverage effects in Korean liquor market

In the article, we implement an empirical test on the portfolio effects of conglomerate mergers, using the data of Korean liquor market during the period 1990–2008 in which there have been several important conglomerate mergers between beer and soju companies. We find that the combined company could take the advantage of regional market dominance in the beer market in expanding regional market shares in the soju market. Such leverage effects are differentiated from the efficiency-enhancing portfolio effects that result in the combined company’s expanding shares over all regional soju markets regardless of the presence of dominance in the beer market. The common distribution channels of liquor wholesalers seem to play a pivotal role in the combined firm’s expansion of dominance in one market into another. Furthermore, we implement separate empirical tests for two subsamples of regionally dominant and nondominant soju companies in order to differentiate the leverage effects of foreclosure from those of toehold. The empirical results show the evidence of leverage effects only for a sample of nondominant soju companies. This implies that the leverage effects of conglomerate mergers between beer and soju companies in Korea had pro-competitive effects in that the combined firm could compete more effectively with regionally dominant companies with the leverage of dominance in the beer market as toehold.     

A Framework for Reconsidering the Lake Wobegon Effect

The Lake Wobegon Effect (LWE) describes the potential measurement-error bias introduced into survey-based analyses of education issues. Although this effect potentially applies to any student-report variable, the systematic overreporting of academic achievements such as grade point average is often of preeminent concern. This concern can be easily circumvented if official records data are available; however, many researchers can only access student-reported data. In this article, the authors examine whether using student-survey data in place of official records data meaningfully biases regression estimates. They motivate their contribution by noting a useful statistical feature of overreporting on bounded variables such as grade point average. Specifically, the misreports will be negatively correlated with the true grade point average, yielding a form of nonclassical measurement error that actually counteracts the bias. The authors connect this observation to reliability ratios used in labor economics, which are simple ways to adjust for attenuation bias, when needed. In two applications, we find that it is unnecessary to correct for the LWE bias because it is so small.     

从固定资产重估看银行资本的提升

分析在国内外会计准则下，通过固定资产重估提升银行资本、缓解监管压力的可行性。根据我国会计准则的相关要求，在固定资产重估方面，目前只能通过投资性房地产重估、固定资产转换与并购重组三种路径提升银行资本，从而达到提升资本充足率的目的，但前两种方法却在一定程度上降低了杠杆率水平，且其市场实施效果也并不乐观。     

Performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe ratio: The case of hedge funds

As recent research highlights that the Sharpe ratio has a decision theoretic foundation even in the case of asymmetric or fat-tailed excess returns and thus is adequate even for the evaluation of hedge funds, this note provides the first Sharpe ratio based performance analysis of the hedge fund market. Furthermore, it addresses the important practical question whether the choice of hypothesis test used to statistically compare Sharpe ratios can influence an investor’s hedge fund selection process. Our key findings are as follows: (i) Only a small fraction of hedge funds in our large dataset can significantly outperform passive investments in corresponding hedge fund indices. (ii) Especially in the presence of autocorrelated or skewed excess returns, the traditional test of Jobson and Korkie, 1981, Memmel, 2003 tends to overstate the number of significant outperformers and thus provides potentially misleading information for investors. Decision makers are advised to use the bootstrap test of Ledoit and Wolf (2008) allowing robust and more reliable inference.     

The business model and balanced scorecard in creative tourism: the ultimate strategy boosters

Despite the various studies on creative tourism, little managerial frameworks such as a business model and a balanced scorecard are investigated for this new phenomenon. The overall image that emerges from the literature is ambiguous and fuzzy. Also, many activities known as creative tourism experiences may provide new participative experiences but rarely include a creative process. This study covers a whole aspect in designing a feasibility test model for creative experiences based on balanced scorecard through qualitative content analysis and as the essence of that, a Business Model by content validity and clustering analysis. Analysis of data by the mentioned methods reveals that four perspectives and 13 critical success factors are essential for the feasibility of a creative tourism experience. In addition, 22 indicators in 3 main dimensions determine the success of a creative tourism business model. This study is part of a growing body of research focused on discovering hidden aspects of creative tourism.     

The mixing ratio in the Indonesian dairy industry

The Indonesian dairy industry has been viewed by the Indonesian government as an industry that has the potential to improve the welfare of low income and landless farmers through providing them with an additional source of farm income. As well, the government sees the industry as a vehicle for providing opportunities for employment in rural areas. From an economy wide viewpoint, its development is viewed as a way Indonesia might save foreign exchange since a large share of its dairy requirements have to be imported. A variety of measures have been used to assist the industry. This paper investigates one of the measures, the BUSEP scheme or mixing ratio regulation which requires domestic processors to use Indonesian produced milk before imported milk.     

江西省农村金融生态发展滞后现状、成因及其破解

良好的金融生态可以促进农村经济结构调整和经济增长方式的转变,增强资金的使用效率。文章结合相关的金融生态水平指标对江西省农村金融生态状况进行了一般性描述,并分析其发展滞后的原因,在此基础上演绎出相应的政策选择。